Rough Patch

Had about a $200 downswing this week, mostly due to bad luck. Seems like every time I got my money all-in, I had the best hand and lost. An old story reborn, and I won't bore you with bad beat stories. But posting a $70 win today got me back on track and restored some of my sanity. It can be a very brutal game when the bad beats come in bunches, but if you hang in there, it always turns around.

Kat Storms to Level 3

Kat's been killing it lately, and has reached Level 3 of her bankroll plan. Way to go baby!

Foreign Banks and the UIGEA

I took my first withdrawal from the poker account last week, and by the time it hit my bank, three or four intermediary banks had taken a piece and I had lost $32 of the $250 I transferred. Pretty much sucks. I'm pulling out another $500 via paper check, and we'll see if that works better (if slower).

One of the reasons that I don't want to keep all of my winnings online is the murky nature of the poker/banking laws, and my fear that the U.S. government might choose (again) to start seizing online poker accounts, essentially freezing the funds. So, from now on, I will only keep online enough to withstand a bad session loss, and no more.

Speaking of poker laws, this week congress delayed enforcement of the UIGEA act until 6/1/2010, which is great news for poker players. If you don't know, the UIGEA was a last-minute bill thrown into effect by GW Bush right before he left office, basically making it illegal for banks to accept transfers from 'gambling', including horse racing, poker and anything else. For a while, this made sites turn away U.S. players and threw the whole prospect of playing poker online into muddy waters. With this six-month delay, that allows time for Barney Frank and his cohorts to push through their challenges to UIGEA and hopefully get it repealed altogether.

Now if we could just do something about Chris Gregoire...

Chad Reaches Level 5!

I've reached level 5 of my bankroll plan, with four days to spare. This is despite having put in tons of extra hours in my day job and not having as much time to play lately.

Level 5 is going to be serious, with a goal of $3,000. It's starting to feel like if I stay on track, my dreams could become realities sooner rather than later.

I'm going to take $100 out of my bankroll for a celebration dinner and start the new level at $1,500 (I'm actually over $1,600 now). That will give me a chance to enjoy the moment before I buckle down to attack the next level.

Here are my latest progress and daily profit/loss charts...click to enlarge:

Reward and Level Change

I've decided that when I reach my next level ($1600). I'm going to take $100 out and treat the family to a nice dinner out. Then I will start the next level at $1500, going to $3000. This will give us a nice reward for the hard work, and make the levels even amounts from here out. With a profit today of $69, I can almost smell dinner!

100 Profit Days, Nearing Level 5

Been on a good streak lately, and am hoping to wrap up Level 4 of my plan on schedule, or at least close to it. The next level has me planning to earn $1600 in two months, quite a jump - but the same earning ratio as always, double the bankroll. I'll be starting $20 games when I hit the new level, to try to reach that goal.

Kat is doing great! She's already tripled her bankroll in 6 weeks. She's actually more addicted to the game than I am right now. If she stays on this pace, we'll have a nice double income by next year.

Chad Plateaus, Kat Reaches Level 2

Interesting week for our poker journey. I mostly spun my wheels, having four sessions in a row where I had a small loss or small gain - mostly due to numerous suckouts, losing with QQ vs JJ, KQ vs Q3, AA vs 66, AA vs J8, etc. Today, I got back on track, posting my biggest session profit so far of $73. I'm exactly on target for my goal date of Nov. 22, having earned $500 out of the $800 I need for my level, with three weeks to go.

Meanwhile, this week, Kat reached Level 2 of her poker plan, making it over the $100 mark in her bankroll. When she reaches $200, she will probably start playing the $5 entry games. I've added a progress summary for her, under mine, so y'all can see how she's doing as well.

No More Turbo Games!

For some reason lately, I've started playing Turbo games (games where the blinds go up twice as fast). But it's proven to be a poor decision, as it amplifies the luck factor, with the quick-rising blinds, and the game quickly gets out of hand. I'm much more successful playing the regular games, so that's what I will do from here on out.

Variance is a Bitch

Variance is the luck factor in poker. Sometimes you get your money in with the best hand, and you lose anyway. Sometimes it happens 15 times in a row and drives you nuts. Imagine that if you flip a coin 1000 times in a row, there will be a stretch in there somewhere where it comes up tails 10 times straight. That's variance. It's even worse when you were an 80%+ favorite 10 times in a row and lost all of those!

Good poker players can survive variance, and so far, I've managed to do so. But it can be a scary, scary thing. Yesterday, I had a session where I dropped 10 games straight without cashing (I typically cash in at least half of my games). The reason? Variance. You have to trust the math in poker to be successful at it. In other words - you want to get all your money into the pot when you have AA and they have KK. But sometimes the 3rd King will come. Sometimes you'll lose a bunch of those hands in a row, where you are a massive favorite. All you can do is shake it off and play the next hand to the best of your abilities. Hey Variance....F*$k You!!

On To Level 4!

I've completed level 3 of my plan ($400-800), posting profits in 28 of my last 29 sessions...and am moving on to level 4 ($800-1,600). This level will be more of a challenge to pull of within the two-month timeframe, but I feel confident that I can make it. I only need to average about $20/day profit to get there, playing 20/30 days each month.

Teaching the Wife

My wife Kajtryna, having seen me grow my bankroll steadily over the past few months, has convinced me to teach her how to play and win at online poker - and together, we shall take over the world (or at least, hopefully, make some serious bank). I have to get her over her cautious tendencies and teach her to bring the hammer down on the unsuspecting, timid players, which make up most of the online poker community.

Soon, I'll be adding to this blog a summary of progress for her as well, as she chases me for family bragging rights.

Goodbye Matrix?

As I near level 4 in my plan, I have some decisions to make. I've been playing mostly Matrix tournaments on Fult Tilt, in which you play four tables at once against the same eight opponents, and you get prizes for 1-3 on each table, and 1-3 in overall scoring. They are fun to play, and also cool because their structure helps you offset the variance in poker (you can get unlucky and knocked off 3/4 tables, but if you win the fourth one, make most of your money back).

However, there isn't much Matrix action above the $20 level - not sure why. So I will probably need to start playing regular 9-person SNGs (sit-n-gos) rather than Matrices. The only real differences are 1) Playing mutliple tables would be against different opponents, so a little trickier to track tendencies, and 2) There's no overall prize pool. Yet the 9-person SNGs go up as high as I could ever want to play, so it seems to be the direction I need to go in. Will keep you posted as to how it goes. Thanks for listening.

Winning Streak of 19 Days Snapped

I was on a great run over the past 2-3 weeks, posting 19 winning days in a row until last night broke the streak. Among my many bad beats were KK beat by AK (twice), JJ beat by AK, and QQ beat by KQ, all of them were all-in pre-flop. AK is apparently unbeatable, even when it's only a 30% favorite. I also flopped a set against a bigger set, flopped a straight against a bigger straight, etc. Oh well. As they say, "that's poker".

The good news is that in a short session today, I've already made back half of what I lost. I'm still over $700, and still on track to make my goal for leveling up.

Back on the Horse

Played today for the first time in a week. Been working hard to get my house ready to sell, and it's finally done. $10 profit today put me over $700 for the first time.

Sparse Playing Lately...

We are getting our house ready to sell, so we can move to Oregon, where the poker laws are friendlier. Because of the work involved, I haven't had much time to play lately. Hopefully next week, things will return to normal.

A Week Off

This week I'm not playing, as we are headed to Bend, OR for vacation. It's a much-needed break, after so much playing lately. Back at it next week.

New Progress Charts

On both charts, you can see the impact of my bad weekend a couple weeks ago. However, I think both charts suggest that that downturn was a fluke. I know that type of thing will happen now and again, however.

Daily Profit/Loss Chart:



Bankroll Chart:

Rules of Engagement

After so much playing, trying to build a bankroll, I've come up with some self-imposed rules that seem to further my success, the more I stick to them:

1) Don't play tired/sick.
When I'm tired or sick, my decision-making process is affected. Unlike most players, I actually play tighter/more conservative when I'm tired. But it still affects my play, so it's to be avoided whenever possible. Nothing wrong with taking a day off.

2) Don't chase a loss.
This is something I'm working on. I'm so competitive and win a good deal of the time. So when I run bad (i.e. get unlucky), I tend to want to play again, to prove that I can win. But it's dumb. There are times when you WILL lose, either because your luck is crap, or because you aren't playing at the top of your game. You have to recognize those times and take a small loss, rather than chase and end up with a huge loss.

3) Don't get personal/emotional.
There will be times when bad players get the best of you. And there will be times when the deck hates you. Either way, you can't let it affect how you play. You can't get fixated on one player, since you have to beat them ALL to win. And you will get bad luck sometimes. You have to try to laugh it off and move on. I'm struggling the most with this last part.

Whew. Back to Level 3

After my two-day horror movie of poker last week, it took me only 5 days to get back to over $400 and therefore back into level 3. I will reset my goal date to complete level 3 to October 4th.

Two Ugly Days

I've taken a significant hit to my bankroll in the past two days. None of my hands were holding up. Didn't matter if I had AA or KK or AK, flop a set, flop a flush...every hand was getting beat. It was driving me crazy and costing me money. I'm back down to level 2 with about $350. But I still have four weeks to meet my original goal date to complete level 2 of Aug 25. So, I'm still on track, but having to climb back from such a setback is frustrating.

Higher Limits = Bigger Swings

It's scary entering a new limit level, where the daily swings to my bankroll are more dramatic (bigger gains, bigger losses). It will take some getting used to, for sure.

King Me Baby!

I found a site where you can look up other players to see where they rank for quality of play and profit. The rankings start at a Deuce with 1 star, up to an Ace with 5 stars. I looked myself up (JQCannon), and I'm ranked as a King with 3 stars! I've been looking up all the players I've been playing with lately, and the highest I've seen is a 10 with three stars. I must be doing something right. Here's the link:

http://www.pokerprolabs.com/JQCannon/fulltiltpoker.aspx

Level 2 Complete - On to Level 3!

I hit the $400 mark in my bankroll, with a daily profit of $19.09. I can now play $20 one-table tournaments and $10 MTTs.

Protect Your Right to Play Poker!

Today, I'm playing in a freeroll sponsored by the Poker Player's Alliance, a non-profit group focused on protecting our legal rights to play poker. Please support the PPA. You can find out more here: http://www.theppa.org/.

(I finished in 895th place, out of over 23k players.)

The Most Brutal Suckout

Ok, poker players love to tell you bad beat stories (stories about hands where they were way ahead but then got very unlucky and lost). But this story is about a bad beat I put on someone else today.

I was getting short-stacked in a tournament and it was time to move all-in, try to double up, with four people left. I look down at J-J. No brainer. I push all-in. The guy behind me calls and shows A-A. Great. I'm a 4-1 dog in this hand. And to make it worse, an Ace comes right off on the flop. I'm less than 1% chance to win now.

On the turn comes another Jack, giving me three Jacks, but still way behind his three Aces.

Then the miracle Jack on the river gives me quad Jacks. Unreal. I chuckled and said 'sorry buddy' to my screen. Believe me, I've been on the other end of a hand like that many times, and it is absolutely no fun.

Progess Charts, as of July 17, 2009

The following charts show my bankroll balance chart since I began, and my daily profit/loss amounts to date.

Bankroll Balance Chart:



Daily Profit/Loss Chart:

Welcome to my Poker Blog

Details on my plan of attack. My bankroll management strategy is borrowed from Poker Pro Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. I am allowed to spend only 5% of my bankroll to buy into a one-table sit-n-go tournament, or 2% to buy into an MTT (multi-table tournament). Every level I reach allows me to buy into bigger tournaments.

Level 1: Start with $45
Started On: May 16th, 2009
Goal: $200
Goal Date: July 16th, 2009
Achieved on June 24th, 2009

Level 2: Start with $200
Started On: June 25th, 2009
Goal: $400
Goal Date: August 25th, 2009
Achieved on July 18th, 2009

Level 3: Start with $400
Goal: $800
Started On: July 18th, 2009
Goal Date: September 18th, 2009

Level 4: Start with $800
Goal: $1,600

Etc...doubling every level within two months.

Please watch my blog for status updates, progress charts, and wish me luck!

Chad